TL;DR:
- The Problem: The pursuit of 100% certainty before acting is a hidden bottleneck. It creates analysis paralysis, drains resources, and surrenders the advantage of speed to your competitors.
- The Solution (The 70% Rule): If you have roughly 70% of the information you need and feel about 70% confident in your direction, it’s time to move. Action is a form of information; you’ll gather the final 30% by doing, not by waiting.
- The Advantage: This framework prioritizes momentum and real-world learning over theoretical perfection. While others are still planning, you are already acting, adapting, and iterating your way to success.
- How to Apply It: Pair the 70% Rule with the OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) to create a powerful, repeatable system for strategic agility in any situation.
The Silent Killer of Great Ideas
We’ve all been there. Trapped in a meeting room, debating the final 5% of a plan. Polishing a proposal for the tenth time. Delaying a launch to add one more “perfect” feature. We tell ourselves we’re being thorough. We say we’re committed to quality.
But what we’re often doing is waiting. Waiting for a guarantee that doesn’t exist.
This state of analysis paralysis is the silent killer of great ideas, brilliant strategies, and market opportunities. In our quest for the perfect plan, we sacrifice our most valuable strategic asset: momentum. The market doesn’t wait for you to be 100% certain. Your competitors certainly won’t.
So, how do you balance smart planning with decisive action? You stop aiming for perfect and start moving at 70%.
Your Framework for Decisive Action: The 70% Rule
The 70% Rule is a mental model famously championed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. He stated that most decisions should be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being too slow.
This isn’t about being reckless. It’s a calculated strategy built on a powerful truth: it’s easier to course-correct a moving ship than it is to get a stationary one started.
Acting on 70% confidence gives you three critical advantages:
- Speed: You get to the market, test your ideas, and learn from real-world feedback while others are still stuck on page one of their plan.
- Momentum: Action creates energy. It transforms a team from a passive think-tank into an active, engaged force that learns and improves with every step.
- Adaptability: By acting sooner, you get feedback sooner. This allows you to pivot, adjust, and refine your strategy based on reality, not theory. You build a business that is naturally resilient and responsive to change.
Waiting for 100% assumes the world is static. The 70% Rule acknowledges that the landscape is always shifting, and the best way to navigate it is by moving through it.
Beyond the Rule: Building a System for Strategic Agility
The 70% Rule is your trigger to act, but to make it truly effective, you need a system for what comes next. This is where you combine it with other powerful strategic frameworks.
The OODA Loop: Act, Learn, Repeat
Created by military strategist John Boyd, the OODA Loop is a four-step cycle for making effective decisions under pressure. It’s the engine that powers the 70% Rule.
- Observe: You’ve acted on 70% certainty. Now, what’s happening? What does the initial data say? What is the market’s reaction?
- Orient: This is the most crucial step. Synthesize the new information with your existing knowledge. Are your initial assumptions still correct? This is where real learning happens.
- Decide: Based on your new orientation, what’s the next smartest move? It doesn’t have to be a huge pivot. It could be a small adjustment or a decision to double down.
- Act: Execute that decision. This action creates new feedback, which starts the loop all over again.
By cycling through OODA rapidly, your small, 70%-certain steps compound into a massive strategic advantage. You’re not just moving fast; you’re learning faster than everyone else.
Reverse Engineering: Your Strategic North Star
A common fear with the 70% Rule is moving fast in the wrong direction. That’s why you anchor your actions with a clear vision of the endgame.
Instead of planning from your current position forward, start at your desired outcome and work backward.
Ask: “For us to achieve our ultimate goal, what must be true one step before that? And one step before that?”
This process clarifies the absolute must-haves—the critical path—for your project. It ensures that even when you’re making quick, 70% decisions, they are all oriented toward the same North Star. It provides the quality and uniqueness of vision needed to guide your speed.
Stop Planning, Start Doing
Strategy is not a static document; it’s a living, breathing process of action and adaptation. Waiting for the perfect moment is an illusion. The perfect moment is created by those who are brave enough to act with imperfect information.
Trust in your team’s ability to navigate, adapt, and learn. Give them a clear direction, empower them with the 70% Rule, and watch as they build the momentum that leaves your competition wondering what happened.